Oh…you thought I meant…No!…Not THAT speech.
I confess that, back when the iPod came out, I thought it was a silly little curiosity—who would pay that much just to carry around a few songs? Obviously, I was wrong about the iPod. On the other hand, when the iPhone came along, I knew that it would be a blockbuster hit.
I do not believe that the iPad is going to be as successful as the iPhone. When the iPhone came along, it promised a massive improvement to a category of device (cell phones) that was already established. I didn't have to decide whether I really needed a cell phone or not; I just had to decide whether the iPhone or another type of cell phone was the phone for me.
Things are different with the iPad. Jobs and crew not only have to convince me that the iPad is the best device in its category; they have to show me that I want to enter the category at all. And frankly, even though I'm a faithful Apple customer since I got my Apple IIc for Christmas back in the 1980s, and even though I've enthusiastically convinced a few others to join the Apple fold, I'm not sure about the iPad. I'm comfortable with my cell phone being a closed platform that can only install applications from a regulated App Store. I'm not sure that I want that model implemented for such a large device as the iPad. For very little more money than the 64GB 3G version, I could have a laptop with multiple of that amount of storage, a real keyboard, an iSight camera, and an open platform for installation of whatever I wish (MS Office, VMware Fusion, etc.).
I'm not predicting the failure of the iPad. Apple is good at making products succeed. The electronics community seems to be excited about the "tablet" category. I'm sure that Apple will make boatloads of money. I'm just saying that I'm not presently seeing an iPad in my future.