Saturday, September 15, 2007

Political Speculation, not Prophecy

…so I don't want to hear any business about putting me to death if this doesn't come true. One of the reasons that I named my blog "Praisegod Barebones" was my desire to comment periodically upon the state of secular politics. This is as muddled an election as I can recall. Nevertheless, I'm going to make the following predictions:
  1. Republicans are going to lose the White House. I don't like it. I won't be voting that way. But that's my prediction.
  2. The only way Republicans have a chance not to lose the White House is if Hillary Clinton is the Democrat nominee. But I'm doubtful that she'll secure the nomination. She has too much baggage, and most of it hasn't been unpacked and put onto display yet. Things will get D-I-R-T-Y before the primaries get into full swing.
  3. Mike Huckabee will perform better than expected, but will not be the Republican nominee. His strong showing will put him into a favorable position to run next time with a larger war chest. He may have the chops.
  4. Obama could very possibly be the next POTUS. I've heard people say that our country "isn't ready for a black president." People overestimate the impact of race upon politics among whites and underestimate the impact of stereotypes upon politics among all demographics. Politics is indeed all about stereotypes. People don't want to think; they would rather categorize. The mistake that people make with regard to Obama is to think that there is only one stereotype into which a black man can fit. Not true. Too many people personally like Bill Cosby (or Heathcliff Huckstable…take your pick). If Obama can steer himself into a Cosbyesque stereotype, then I think that he can win.
  5. If the Democrat nominee is elected, he or she will not withdraw from Iraq nearly as quickly as he or she will have to promise during the election.
  6. The Democrat elected this time will be a one-term president.
I stand behind absolutely none of this, nor do I offer it particularly forcefully. Just something to talk about.


Anonymous said...

If your forecast is correct it won't really matter, but who do you suppose will be the Republican nominee?

I imagine this will give more fodder for conversation among Baptists, or at least among Praisegod readership.

Do we vote for a wolf in sheep's clothing (Mitt) or the donkey in elephant's clothing (Rudy G.)? As for me and my house, we will probably vote Huck in the primary & hope for the best.

I don't much like McCain, but could vote him in the election if need be. Beyond these two, I'm not to sure what I will do.

I also believe you are correct that GOP is OUT, but wouldn't venture so far as the 1 term statement.

The green party is starting to look pretty good these days.

Robin Foster said...


You and I both know the wonderful things Huckabee did for Arkansas. All you have to do is drive on the roads and see that 20 years of decay was fixed. He also brought integrity back to the state government.

I agree with you, he won't get the nod this time around, but if he continues on the speaking circuit like Reagan did, he should be able to build up some money.

BTW, don't count out Fred Thompson. He does have a track record that can be investigated and it looks good so far. Remember, he was one of the ones that brought the contract with America. He was faithful in following it, though some weren't. As being more viable than Huckabee, he is capable of taking it.

Ultimately, God is sovereign over all of this. We are required to do as he leads us.

Bart Barber said...


I'm sticking with the 1-term concept based upon this scenario: The one thing that will secure the White House for the Democrats (wartime demagoguery) will be an issue on which the new President will not be able to deliver. Instead, the new President will misread the mood of the electorate as a call for full-speed-ahead indulgence in socialized medicine, gay marriage, higher taxes, etc.

I am not yet ready to speculate as to the GOP nominee. Really, I didn't even speculate much as to the identity of the Democrat nominee. I do think that it will wind up being either Romney, Rudy, or Arthur Branch.

Bart Barber said...


Here's a "This country's not ready..." kind of statement for you:

This country's not ready to elect as President anyone who has been diagnosed with cancer. In fact, I don't think they're even ready to elect anyone who's wife has been diagnosed with cancer.

Big Daddy Weave said...

The Republican Party has a bleak future if better candidates aren't found. On the other hand, I believe Huckabee is a great candidate. While the GOP has been plagued with ethical/moral scandals over the past few years, Huckabee stands tall as a man with impeccable integrity. I don't like his politics but he seems to be a likeable guy. Those type qualities can go a long way in a general election...

I'm surprised that you're doubtful about what appears to be Hillary's inevitable nomination. But who knows John Edwards might crank out a big win in IOWA and the Hillary campaign could unravel making next year very interesting!

But should Obama steer himself into a "Cosbyesque" stereotype? If Obama wins, it's not going to be because of white folks feel he fits a certain acceptable stereotype (i.e. not too black). For Obama to even win the nomination, he needs a higher percentage of the black vote than he's polling at right now....

#5 - I agree with. Nonetheless, I believe the nominee will get the troops out of Iraq just slower than the little people hope for...

Bart Barber said...


I agree about Huckabee. He won't make it this time around, but I think a stronger day may be coming for him in the future. But for this cycle, I must say that I can't, for the life of me, imagine why the GOP seems so interested in producing "Bob Dole II: The Sequel"

Of course, I see candidate weakness on both sides of the aisle. Who do you guys have that you consider an A-player?

Robin Foster said...


I missed out on the cancer thing. Has Thompson been diagnosed with it? Is he over it. What about Guliani and his bout with cancer?

Bart Barber said...


Non-Hodgkins Lymphoma, now in remission. See here. The cancer hurts Rudy, too, I think. You notice that I'm not predicting him to win.

Bro. Matt said...

Huckabee seems to be the only decent nominee out there. I certainly cannot, at least at this point, vote for McCain, Rudy, nor Mitt. Oh well, maybe next time there will be someone exciting enough, and conservative enough, to get behind.

Tim G said...

I vote Bart with Ben Cole as a running mate. Sure would keep the news more interesting than what we have now!

Seriously, Bart you may right on with this prediction. It is going to be interesting. What I also see missing are great strategist. Where did they all go?

Matt Brady said...

According to Fox News John McCain called himself a Baptist yesterday while campaigning in South Carolina. He claimed to be an active member of the North Phoenix Baptist Church for more than 15 years. His membership claim intrigues me, because of the following quote from the story:

“In a June interview with McClatchy Newspapers, the senator said his wife and two of their children have been baptized in the Arizona Baptist church, but he had not. "I didn't find it necessary to do so for my spiritual needs," he said.” [emphasis mine]

I also found the following quote from a 2000 Time/CNN article interesting.

“McCain began attending Baptist services in Tempe, Ariz., before moving to Phoenix. ‘I just liked the church,’ he says. The four youngest McCain children are Baptists. Still, McCain maintains his Episcopalianism. Richard Jackson, pastor emeritus of North Phoenix, is not bothered. ‘I'm concerned about a person's relationship with Christ,’ he says, ‘and I was convinced he had that personal faith.’”

I’ll take the AR Baptist candidate over the AZ “Baptist” candidate any day, but I’m not ruling out that Church of Christ fellow from Tennessee either. I wouldn’t vote him into our church, but I might be persuaded to vote him into the White House.

Anonymous said...

The next few presidencies are going to be one-term varieties.

The Congress will also probably flip majorities twice in the next decade and a half.

There's so many problems, and so few leaders, that no elected leader is safe. The problems are coming so fast, and the government response so slow, and the American public expects solutions NOW, not 3 or 4 fiscal years down the road.

That's just my reading...

For the record, I wanted Al Gore to win in 2000 because I believed whoever won would doom their party for the next decade.

Mike (but I look like Karl Rove...)

Anonymous said...

Bart: I'm for Huck all the way. And cannot think of any reason for him to win other than an intervention from the Most High God.

I pray Hillary gets the nomination because she doesn't have a prayer's chance of winning--so liberal policies such as government controlled socialism will be defeated from the beginning and immoral precedent setting judges will not be nominated.

Personally, I think anyone (no matter what color) who has the charisma to persuade, manipulate behind the scenes without being noticed for that manipulation and who follows the strategy of two homosexuals, Kirk and Madsen, introduced in the 90's would prevail and win the office of President.

Kirk and Madsen devised a strategy that called for desensitizing, "jamming" and converting. It worked. For more information on their strategy one might look at studying "After the Ball: How America will Conquer Its Fear and Hatred of Gays in the 90s".

The sad thing about strategizing is how effectively it can work for the one's opponents when the opponent is wrong in ideology yet perfect in methodology. selahV

R. L. Vaughn said...

I like Mike. But my vote in the primary will go to Ron Paul (unless, of course, I change my mind between now and then). Republican politicians as a group seem to have lost their way, giving lip service to smaller government but their votes to bigger government and more spending.

volfan007 said...

i wish that huckabee could win as well. he was the only candidate that i felt that i could vote for... until thompson officially joined the race. i still like huckabee....but, i believe that thompson has the best chance of winning.

if it's a thompson v. osama obama race, then i cant see people voting for a man with a muslim name and connection....and for some, sadly, because he's black.

if it's a thompson v. hillary race, then i cant see people voting for hillary with all the moral clouds hanging over a clinton, and she's a woman. i'll guarantee that a lot of people aint voting for a woman president.

so, i think thompson has a great chance of winning. plus, his movie star image will help get him votes...especially law and order fans.


Bob Cleveland said...

Ah ... if only Harry Truman could come back as a Republican.